Every New Year brings in predictions of all kinds for every
industry and then there are some brave ones who also publish a score card of
their predictions – how many came true or missed the mark. I followed this
trend randomly with results of predictions over a decade back and also
attempted to predict some softer aspects of work life as I foresaw them with
reasonable accuracy if I may add. For this year I decided to look take an
antithetical view and take a shot at non-events, i.e. what may not happen or
live up to hype !
Hot trends and technologies on everyone’s list: Artificial
Intelligence or Intelligence Augmentation, Internet of Things (Industrial and
Consumer), Autonomous Cars/transportation, Smart Cities/Homes, Chatbots,
Blockchain, and Augmented/Virtual Reality. I am not counting the all-time
favorites like Mobility, Consumer Engagement, Cybersecurity, and Cloud, all of
which have become boring. Then there are other new emerging technologies which
may be of interest to many; this list is based on my assessment.
Participating in a hackathon around AI, I realized that
majority did not make the grade to be even classified as AI based solutions.
Use of a technology does not differentiate the solution from other conventional
alternatives like BI; the ability to leverage AI was demonstrated by just a
handful leaving a lot to be desired. AI and for that matter IA shall not make a
difference to majority of enterprise customers; there will be just a handful of
outliers. The rest will struggle to attract attention of buyers who will learn
quickly.
Internet of Things will find use cases in the industry but
with limited commercial deployments; Industry 4.0 or automated sensors across
the assembly line will create large volumes of data thus distracting the
solution with focus on Big Data rather than the efficiency that can be created
based on feedback loops and intelligent mining of the mass of data. On the
consumer end, wearables will dominate the discussion with all others being good
for experimental use, unable to create and sustain scale of any merit.
Any deployment or increase in autonomous vehicles will
frustrate human drivers and thus see a pushback despite higher success rates.
Theoretically in a world populated only by driverless vehicles, there are no
accidents, efficient use of infrastructure, lower pollution, reduced traffic
jams, all of them leading to lower production of cars which auto companies will
resist tooth and nail. Customers will shy away from potential security threats
in automated cars and the loss of thrill that driving real automobiles brings
to the individual.
Cities are getting smarter with better management of
traffic, power, water, sewage, and a lot more; the aspiration is to connect
citizens in a digital fabric to monitor, influence, and empower, all at the
same time. While the digital highways are getting ready, citizens around the
world are wary of the loss of privacy and traceability of their digital
footprints by governments and the dark world, both undesirable by many. Smarter
homes appear to be harmless with easing of chores and tasks, the ill effects as
yet unknown.
Chatbots are the new excitement for anyone engaging with
customers in their attempt to reduce the cost of interaction. They are getting
quite efficient with semantic analysis and learning capabilities that mimic
human behavior; some chatbots got better of themselves with inflammatory messages
and parliamentary language ! The ability to corrupt the chatbots is getting
difficult, but these will be the new targets for increasing reputation risk.
Another couple of years before they go mainstream and live to promise.
Big IT is getting behind Blockchain, announcements appear
with increasing frequency; Blockchain is also getting faster with improved
processing speeds. Newer alternative currencies have attempted to displace
Bitcoin (now the de facto currency of the dark net) unsuccessfully, the
interest is growing with Governments and that will be the trigger that will
legalize the use of this technology. Until then it will continue to create
higher valuations for startups who insert the word Blockchain in their
technology stack and pitches to investors.
We are bored of reality that it needs augmentation, we want
to experience virtual reality as the world we live in imposes restrictions on
physical being and presence. The world of fantasy and alter identities
resurfaces after almost a decade, now more immersive and experiential. Engaging
consumers with VR sounds good, probably will work for millennials to assist
buying, for the baby boomers and others in between, the uses will probably
scare the prudes ! A while before enterprises get excited or find real use
cases.
That’s all for now, add your lists to this one … comments, critique welcome !
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